Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the bilateral at Chequers?
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?
Markets
40 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 82%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 67%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 62%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 60%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 59%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 12+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 43%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shield | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| King | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Queen | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Buckingham / Windsor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade Deal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 23%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | No | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Chip / Ship | No | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Churchill | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell | No | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Women's sports | No | 47%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Deal 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza Strip | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Agriculture / Agricultural | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scotch / Whisky | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pharmaceutical | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Gaza 7+ times | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 37%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Golf | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Carriage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| London | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigration / Migration | No | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 18%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 5%n=121 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP