Donald Trump: Remarks, Jun 6, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his next bilateral with a foreign leader?
Markets
10 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 70%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 69%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | No | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanction | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBILATERALMENTION-25JUN06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP