Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his signing of the Presidential Memorandum?
Markets
25 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 81%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 70%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| The Left / Radical Left | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| DOJ / Justice | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charlie | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Murder | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| RICO | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Violence / Violent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| College / University | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 72%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 48%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 41%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Fund / Funding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 24%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 20%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP