Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 2, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during announcement today?
Markets
11 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 67%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 54%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 46%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stroke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golf | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Emergency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=112 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-announcement-today · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP