Donald Trump: Keynote, Mar 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the Crypto Summit?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Crypto Summit on Friday?
Markets
41 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coin 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SEC / Securities & Exchange Commission | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| BTC / Bitcoin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reserve | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 34%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ETF / Exchange Traded Fund | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rug Pull | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ulbricht | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Milady | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ethereum | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Melania | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Barron | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Altcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Binance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CBDC / Central Bank Digital Currency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Coinbase | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FTX | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gary / Gensler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hack | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microstrategy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ross / Ulbricht | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rugpull / Rug Pull | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vitalik/Buterin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solana | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ripple | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Memecoin / Meme coin | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto Reserve / Cryptocurrency Reserve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ETH / Ethereum | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SOL / Solana | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| XRP / Ripple | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dogecoin | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cryptocurrency | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCRYPTOSUMMIT-25MAR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP