Donald Trump: Weekly window, Apr 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (April 12)
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Apr 6, 2026 to Apr 13, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
52 words · 27 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 76%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| 50,000 | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Shit / Ass | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Great Again | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction / Predicted | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Allah | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Czar | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stone Age | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| South Korea | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Keir / Starmer | Yes | – | 0 | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 46%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Paper Tiger | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=330 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | – | 0 | 86%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | – | 0 | 79%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | – | 0 | 72%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | 69%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | – | 0 | 64%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Two weeks | No | – | 0 | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | – | 0 | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense / Commonsense | No | – | 0 | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Lee / Zeldin | No | – | 0 | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Coffee | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King Charles | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tube | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Witch | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | – | 0 | 50%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | – | 0 | 49%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Potato | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Delcy / Rodriguez | No | – | 0 | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Boots on the ground | No | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg Island | No | – | 0 | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | – | 0 | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | – | 0 | 16%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 16%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 14%n=34 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-april-12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP