Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 18, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Saudi PM events on November 18?
Markets
19 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 52%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 50%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Board of Peace | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 44%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| F-35 | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | Yes | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham Accords | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Princess | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Gaza 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden 4+ times | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Thank you 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Phase Two | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Every Arab | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rich country / Richest country | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strong peace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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