Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Black History Month Reception?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Board of Peace events?
Markets
35 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=180 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 56%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Eight war / 8th war | Yes | 56%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| HAMAS | Yes | 54%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 54%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 52%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 51%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Please / Thank 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | Yes | 43%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Turkey / Orban | Yes | 43%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Peace / War 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Indonesia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 41%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| United Nation | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Phase / Term | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Israel / Gaza 10+ times | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 32%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Accord | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 26%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tiger / Woods | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 45%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Africa | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful Black Woman / Beautiful Black Women | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Clarence / Thomas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tunnel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disaster | No | 34%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 30%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 22%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Bad Bunny | No | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=275 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP