Donald Trump: Interview, May 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Interview with Sean Hannity?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Hannity interview on May 13?
Markets
30 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| In the history | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Qatar | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 65%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MBS / Mohammed bin Salman | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Big beautiful deal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dome | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Geneva | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golf / Golfer | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Syria | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Netanyahu / Bibi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hostage | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 29%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=87 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTHANNITY-25MAY13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP