Donald Trump: Remarks, May 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Trade Announcement?
Markets
21 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 68%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 65%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chip | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Luxury | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| EU / European Union | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| India | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Automobile | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drug | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Import | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pakistan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pharmaceutical | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| G7 / G-7 | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP