JD Vance: Remarks, Jul 16, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the Remarks on the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill Act?
Markets
25 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Family | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Opportunity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Small Business | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Worker | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artificial Intelligence / AI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Child Care | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Coal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gambling | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Age | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infrastructure | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Military | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax on Tips | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25JUL16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP