JD Vance: Rally, Aug 27, 2024
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during Michigan rally?
Markets
17 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NAFTA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Couch | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Back the Blue | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dynamic Duo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mamaw | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Okay Good | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poison | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Riot | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stolen Valor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| You Guys | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-vance-say-during-michigan-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP