JD Vance: Rally, Aug 28, 2024
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during Pennsylvania rally?
Markets
18 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poison | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| You Guys | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NAFTA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Couch | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Back the Blue | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dynamic Duo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mamaw | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Okay Good | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stolen Valor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tampon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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