# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-09-20 (settled) · 37 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP21 · as_of 2026-10-26T07:59:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-20 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-13..2026-09-17 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP21 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Sep 21, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 3 of 5 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T12:22:21Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 2 appearances since 2026-09-17 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-09-18:remarks: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (pending; eta 2026-10-31T03:59:00Z)
# rows 1-28 of 37 by p · more: offset=28 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	113	84	0.74	YYYYYYYYYn	8	0	0.87	2	2	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	10	8	0.8	nnYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.83	0	0	yes		1
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	17	12	0.71	YnYYYYYYYY	8	2	0.79	2	2	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	228	126	0.55	YYYYnnYYnn	8	0	0.78	1	2	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	48	25	0.52	YnYYYYnnYY	8	1	0.77	1	1	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	59	39	0.66	YnnnnYYYnY	8	1	0.73	0	0	yes		1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	168	98	0.58	nnnnnYYYnn	8	0	0.7	1	1	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	95	51	0.54	nnYYYYnnYn	8	2	0.7	11	11	yes	1	
Melania	melania	78	49	0.63	YnYnYYYYYn	8	0	0.69	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	43	29	0.67	YYYYnYYnYY	8	1	0.68	0	0	no		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	54	34	0.63	YYYnYYnnYn	8	0	0.64	1	1	yes	1	
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	3	2	0.67	YYn	8	2	0.63	2	4	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	47	32	0.68	YYYYYnnnnY	8	0	0.6	0	0	no		1
Moon	moon	28	12	0.43	nnnnnnYYYn	8	0	0.6	0	0	no		1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	67	30	0.45	YYnYnYnnnY	8	1	0.56	0	0	no		1
Voter ID	voter id	7	3	0.43	nYnYYnn	8	0	0.56	0	0	yes		1
Save America Act	save america act	55	28	0.51	nnnYnYnYYY	8	1	0.51	2	2	yes	1	
Obamacare	obamacare	6	2	0.33	nYnnnY	8	0	0.51	0	0	yes		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	27	12	0.44	YnnnYYnYnn	8	0	0.5	0	0	yes		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	61	34	0.56	nnnYnYnnnn	8	0	0.47	0	0	yes		1
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	17	6	0.35	nYYYnYnnnY	8	0	0.46	2	2	yes	1	
Blockade	blockade	18	7	0.39	YnYnYnYnnn	8	0	0.44	0	0	yes		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	496	54	0.11	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.39	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	37	10	0.27	YYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.38	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	16	4	0.25	nnnnYnYnnn	8	0	0.38	0	0	yes		1
Antifa	antifa	22	3	0.14	nnnnnnnYnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Soleimani	soleimani	17	6	0.35	nnYnnYnnnn	8	0	0.34	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	29	8	0.28	nnYYnnnnYY	8	0	0.32	0	0	no		1