Will Donald Trump say “Budget”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Budget” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2025 (38%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Budget
- Probability
- 58% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Well, it -- it could also balance the budget. These are the numbers you're talking. A little bit more than that, you balance the budget.
We cut the U.N. budget for the first time ever, slashing it by 15% in 2026 and eliminating more than 4000 positions from the U.N.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Budget |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Budget | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Budget |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Budget | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Budget | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Budget | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Budget”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Budget” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2025 (38%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Budget” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Budget’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/budget (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=budget · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP