Will Donald Trump say “Recession”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Recession” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Recession
- Probability
- 38% · n=6
- Settled
- 0/6 (0%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…always been great at finance. Their policies will lead to a massive recession, but more likely a depression. Our country will be practically finished. If…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Recession |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Recession |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Recession | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Recession | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Recession | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Recession | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Recession”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Recession” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Recession” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/recession (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP