# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2026-05-22 · 43 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY22 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-kevin-warshs-swearing-in · as_of 2026-10-24T23:06:06Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-22 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Swearing-In Ceremony for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-kevin-warshs-swearing-in (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony scheduled for May 22, 2026.
# rows 1-35 of 43 by p · more: offset=35 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	149	98	0.66	nnYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	1	K	75	49	0.65	nnnYnYnYYn	1	0	0.63	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	KP	74	40	0.54	YYYnYYYYnn	1	1	0.63	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	KP	253	170	0.67	nnnYnYnYnY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	K	97	65	0.67	YYYYYnnnnY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.59	hist	no
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	1	K	5	5	1	YYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	K	15	10	0.67	nnYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	P	103	66	0.64	YnYYYnYYYn	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
First Term	first term	1	K	8	6	0.75	nYnYYYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	38	22	0.58	nYnYnnnnYn	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	143	94	0.66	nYnnnYnnnY	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	81	44	0.54	nnYnYYnYnY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	K	233	124	0.53	YnnnnYnYYY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	92	56	0.61	nnYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Egg	egg	1	K	28	12	0.43	YYYnnnYYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	K	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	176	111	0.63	nnnnYnnYYn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	K	125	69	0.55	nnYnYYnnnY	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Gold	gold	1	P	6	3	0.5	YnnYnY	1	0	0.46	hist	no
Powell	powell	1	K	6	1	0.17	nnnYnn	1	0	0.45	hist	no
Renovation	renovation	1	KP	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Booming	booming	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.43	hist	yes
Job	job	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.42	hist	yes
War	war	1	P	8	5	0.62	YnnYYYYn	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Inflation 5+ times	inflation#5	5	P	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	1	0.41	hist	yes
Too Late	too late	1	KP	25	8	0.32	nnnnnYYnnY	1	1	0.4	hist	no
Recession	recession	1	P	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Tariff 5+ times	tariff#5	5	P	15	5	0.33	nnYnnnYYnn	1	1	0.39	hist	no
Jerome / Powell	jerome|powell	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.39	hist	no
Budget	budget	1	P	4	0	0	nnnn	1	1	0.37	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	K	13	5	0.38	YYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	no
Ballroom / Pool	ballroom|pool	1	P	0	0			1	1	0.36	hist	no
Six Seven	six seven	1	P	26	9	0.35	YYYnYnnnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	no
Highest Inflation	highest inflation	1	K	17	4	0.24	nnnnYnnnnn	1	1	0.32	hist	no