Will Donald Trump say “Gold”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gold” at 5 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 22, 2025 (45%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Gold
- Probability
- 52% · n=11
- Settled
- 5/11 (45%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…men boxing in the whole thing last time and they both won gold medals. Shockingly, they both won gold medals. But men from playing in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Gold |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Gold | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Gold | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2026 | Gold | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Gold |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Gold | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Gold | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Gold | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Gold | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Gold | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Gold | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Gold”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gold” at 5 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 22, 2025 (45%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gold” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gold’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gold (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gold · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP