Will Donald Trump say “War”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “War” at 7 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 30, 2025 (64%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
War
- Probability
- 54% · n=11
- Settled
- 7/11 (64%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…know, it's been through the mill. Looks like it went through the war. Actually, it did actually. So, I took the doors. I'm a big…
…of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in Venezuela. One of the I mean if you got to take…
…from American families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people, by…
…You know, there's some things you need. If you ever have a war, you can't say, "Let's see. Let's get some steel from China." You…
…say that from day one of my administration, we've waged an unprecedented war on corruption and fraud, and will not let our country be looted…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | War |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | War | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| May 22, 2026 | War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | War |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 11, 2025 | War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 25, 2025 | War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 25, 2025 | War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 21, 2025 | War | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “War”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “War” at 7 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 30, 2025 (64%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “War” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP