# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · podcast_episode 2026-03-04 · 50 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR18 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-tech-signing-event-on-march-4 · as_of 2026-10-27T08:41:25Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-04 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 podcast episode transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of next White House (YouTube) live announcement, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-tech-signing-event-on-march-4 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on March 4, 2026.
# rows 1-33 of 50 by p · more: offset=33 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	1	KP	131	88	0.67	YYYYnYnnnY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	92	63	0.68	YYnYnYYYYY	1	1	0.62	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	KP	192	134	0.7	nnnYYYnYnY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	K	59	35	0.59	YnYYYnnnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	K	75	54	0.72	YnYYYYnYYn	1	1	0.58	hist	no
China	china	1	K	120	77	0.64	nYYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	K	58	34	0.59	nYYnYYYnnY	1	1	0.58	hist	no
TrumpRX / Trump RX	trump rx|trumprx	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.57	hist	no
Dell	dell	1	P	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	1	K	13	8	0.62	nYnnnYYYnY	1	0	0.56	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	43	25	0.58	nYYYnYnnYY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	K	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	0	0.54	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	K	53	29	0.55	nnnnYnYYnY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Genius	genius	1	KP	8	5	0.62	YYYnYnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Windmill	windmill	1	K	19	10	0.53	nnYYYYnnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Good Friend of Mine / Friend of Mine	friend of mine|good friend of mine	1	P	0	0			1	1	0.5	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	K	35	12	0.34	nYnYnnYnnY	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
High IQ	high iq	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.47	hist	no
China 3+ times	china#3	3	P	14	10	0.71	YnYnYYYYYn	1	1	0.46	hist	yes
Google	google	1	P	3	2	0.67	nYY	1	0	0.46	hist	yes
Boom / Booming	boom|booming	1	P	3	2	0.67	nYY	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.45	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	KP	157	87	0.55	YnYYnYYYnn	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Woke / DEI	dei|woke	1	KP	8	4	0.5	YYnnnnYY	1	1	0.43	hist	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	1	K	27	11	0.41	nYYYnnYYnn	1	1	0.42	hist	no
National Security	national security	1	K	8	2	0.25	nnnnYnnY	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	K	58	24	0.41	YYnYYnnnnY	1	1	0.41	hist	no
AI / Artificial 5+ times	ai|artificial#5	5	P	0	0			1	1	0.41	hist	yes
Cook / Jensen	cook|jensen	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.41	hist	no
Manhattan	manhattan	1	P	6	3	0.5	YnYnYn	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	1	0.4	hist	yes
Electricity	electricity	1	K	3	0	0	nnn	1	1	0.4	hist	yes
Anthropic	anthropic	1	K	0	0			1	0	0.4	hist	no