Will Donald Trump say “Disaster / Catastrophe”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Disaster / Catastrophe” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 9, 2025.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Disaster / Catastrophe
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…be wars. And we're close to ending, I hope, the Russia Ukraine catastrophe. I hope we're ending that. You know that in the Russia Ukraine…
…do well, it would have been Jeff. I would have had a disaster on my hands, right? That's what they told me. They said, "Well,…
…the most crazed people in the entire country. It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in…
…to be tremendously less. But these -- I mean, California is a disaster, Minnesota, Maine -- it's hard to believe. It's so bad it's like…
…that AI is going to kill us all, that robots are going to attack us, and that everything is going to be a total disaster.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | Disaster / Catastrophe |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Disaster / Catastrophe”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Disaster / Catastrophe” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Disaster / Catastrophe” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Disaster / Catastrophe’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/catastrophe-or-disaster (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=catastrophe%20%2F%20disaster · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP