Will Donald Trump say “Frack / Fracking”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Frack / Fracking” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2024 (75%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Frack / Fracking
- Probability
- 43% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | Frack / Fracking |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Frack / Fracking |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Frack / Fracking | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Frack/Fracking | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Frack / Fracking”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Frack / Fracking” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2024 (75%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Frack / Fracking” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Frack / Fracking’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/frack-or-fracking (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=frack%20%2F%20fracking · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP