Will Donald Trump say “Beef”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Beef” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 5, 2025 (53%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Beef
- Probability
- 48% · n=15
- Settled
- 8/15 (53%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Beef |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 31 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Beef |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Beef | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Beef | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Beef | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Beef | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Beef | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Beef | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Beef”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Beef” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 5, 2025 (53%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Beef” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Beef’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/beef (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=beef · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP