Will Donald Trump say “Walz / Minnesota”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Walz / Minnesota” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (100%), most recently on Feb 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Walz / Minnesota
- Probability
- 46% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I love this land. God bless the USA. From the lakes of Minnesota to the hills of Tennessee, across the plains of Texas, from sea…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you could do that here. I know you could do it in Minnesota. I didn't know you could do that here. We better get that…
…severe. When you see some of the things that we're finding in Minnesota and California, we have crooked politicians running the places, it really gets…
…community -- the lovely community from Somalia, lovely country -- in Minneapolis, Minnesota, was stealing billions and billions of dollars, taxpayer money, through fraudulent childcare…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | Walz / Minnesota |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Minnesota / Walz | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Minnesota / Walz |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Minnesota / Walz | Polymarket | Yes |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Minnesota / Walz | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Walz / Minnesota”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Walz / Minnesota” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (100%), most recently on Feb 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Walz / Minnesota” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Walz / Minnesota’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/minnesota-or-walz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=minnesota%20%2F%20walz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP