Will Donald Trump say “Trade / Deal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade / Deal” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 18, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trade / Deal
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…are nicer ways for you to make a living. You want to deal with these maniacs? You can deal if you want, but there are…
…in American history, the highest energy prices in American history, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
…successful bipartisan effort to pass the Take It Down Act, a big deal.And it went almost, I think, unanimously through Congress. We are very bipartisan.…
…day, right? You know, somebody said, somebody said that Evander, the real deal, Holyfield is here. Where is Evander? Is here. Oh, look at him.…
…American taxpayers are tired of it. We want Zelenskyy to make a deal. He can make a deal. He could have made a deal two…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2025 | Trade / Deal |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trade / Deal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade / Deal” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trade / Deal” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trade / Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deal-or-trade (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deal%20%2F%20trade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP