Will Donald Trump say “Memphis”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Memphis” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2025 (50%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Memphis
- Probability
- 43% · n=6
- Settled
- 3/6 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Since the year 1900, I sent our crime busters into Memphis, Tennessee, and New Orleans, Louisiana, and crime in each place went down over 80%…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Memphis |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Memphis | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Memphis |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Memphis | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Memphis | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Memphis | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Memphis”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Memphis” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2025 (50%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Memphis” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Memphis’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/memphis (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=memphis · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP