Will Donald Trump say “Venezuela / Maduro”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Venezuela / Maduro” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Venezuela / Maduro
- Probability
- 48% · n=14
- Settled
- 6/14 (43%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…it is almost like a release. It's good. You know, we took Venezuela quickly. We're doing we're doing very well. You have no idea how…
…I think we're captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in…
…world. And we captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who's now awaiting trial for lots of bad things. And…
…be flawless against attack, and arrested the outlaw dictator, real criminal Nicolas Maduro. Since that day, hundreds of Venezuelan political prisoners have been freed. They've…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Venezuela / Maduro |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Venezuela / Maduro | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Maduro / Venezuela |  Polymarket | No |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Maduro/Venezuela | Polymarket | Yes |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Maduro / Venezuela | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Maduro / Venezuela | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Venezuela / Maduro”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Venezuela / Maduro” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Venezuela / Maduro” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Venezuela / Maduro’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/maduro-or-venezuela (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=maduro%20%2F%20venezuela · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP