Will Donald Trump say “Crime”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crime” at 22 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (76%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 82% (n=29, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crime
- Probability
- 82% · n=29
- Settled
- 22/29 (76%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…have no government where they have no anything. All they have is crime. You know what their number one You know what their number one…
…taken off the streets and we've achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded despite the fact that people have come in that we…
…want to thank everybody for being here. The effort to stop cyber crime and cyber fraud has been ongoing for many years, but I think…
…we've achieved the largest we have achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded with the murder rate the lowest it's been in 125…
…money. And because when they did that, that's a certain type of crime. But nobody ever thought that you could have stolen $2 trillion or…
Every settled listing
newest first · 29 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crime |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 18 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 36 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 53 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 37 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 14 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 14 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| May 31, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Crime | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Crime |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Crime | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crime”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crime” at 22 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (76%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crime” next time?
- 82%, from settlement history (n=29). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crime’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crime (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crime · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP