Will Donald Trump say “Israel / Gaza”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Gaza” at 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2025 (56%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Israel / Gaza
- Probability
- 43% · n=9
- Settled
- 5/9 (56%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 1 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your favorite president?" He said, "Abraham Lincoln." I said,…
On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Israel / Gaza |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Gaza / Israel | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Gaza / Israel |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Gaza / Israel | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Gaza / Israel | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Gaza / Israel | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Gaza / Israel | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Israel / Gaza | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Gaza / Israel | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Israel / Gaza”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Gaza” at 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2025 (56%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Israel / Gaza” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Israel / Gaza’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gaza-or-israel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gaza%20%2F%20israel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP