Will Donald Trump say “Kash / Patel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kash / Patel” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Oct 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Kash / Patel
- Probability
- 38% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, FBI Director Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, National Cyber Director Sean Camon…
…McDonald, Trent McCotter have been going after these fraudsters night and day. Kash Patel has been chasing them to every corner of the globe. You…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Kash / Patel |  Polymarket | No |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Kash / Patel |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Kash / Patel | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Kash / Patel | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Kash / Patel | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Kash / Patel | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Kash / Patel | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Kash / Patel | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Kash / Patel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kash / Patel” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Oct 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Kash / Patel” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Kash / Patel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/kash-or-patel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=kash%20%2F%20patel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP