Will Donald Trump say “Speech”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Speech” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 18, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Speech
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…he said that young man has a lot of He made a speech so good that I didn't want to speak after him. He presented…
…Nebraska. We're going to reelect I went to Nebraska, made a little speech, and he took off like a rocket ship. You saw that, right?…
…cracking up, right? And then I came back and I finished my speech and I said, "Baby, how good was that tonight? Was that the…
…passed the Stop Nick Shirley Act, an outrageous attempt to crush free speech and to stop the corruption from being exposed. So, today, I'm thrilled…
You gave a very—you gave a very powerful speech at the U.N.—was it yesterday or the day before.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2025 | Speech |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Speech”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Speech” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Speech” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Speech’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/speech (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=speech · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP