Will Donald Trump say “Ceasefire” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ceasefire” 3+ times at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ceasefire 3+ times
- Probability
- 40% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is now well over 300%. Yet even after we agreed to a cease fire for nuclear discussions, Iran promptly violated it with brazen acts of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | Ceasefire 3+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Ceasefire 3+ | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Ceasefire 3+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Ceasefire 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ceasefire 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ceasefire” 3+ times at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ceasefire 3+ times” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ceasefire 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ceasefire-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ceasefire%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP