Will Donald Trump say “NAFTA”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NAFTA” at 4 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 25, 2024 (27%), most recently on Apr 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

41%from settlement history only · n=15counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 7 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

NAFTA

Probability
41% · n=15
Settled
4/15 (27%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

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Every settled listing

newest first · 15 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 7, 2025NAFTAKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2025NAFTAKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2025NAFTAKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2025NAFTAKalshiNo
May 30, 2025NAFTAPolymarketNo
Apr 29, 2025NAFTAPolymarketNo
Apr 15, 2025NAFTAPolymarketNo
Apr 10, 2025NAFTAPolymarketYes
Apr 2, 2025NAFTAPolymarketYes
Mar 11, 2025NAFTAPolymarketNo
Oct 26, 2024NAFTAPolymarketNo
Oct 25, 2024NAFTAPolymarketYes
Oct 24, 2024NAFTAPolymarketNo
Oct 16, 2024NAFTAPolymarketNo
Sep 25, 2024NAFTAPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “NAFTA”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NAFTA” at 4 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 25, 2024 (27%), most recently on Apr 10, 2025.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “NAFTA” next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘NAFTA’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nafta (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nafta · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP