Will Donald Trump say “Defense”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Defense” at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (36%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Defense
- Probability
- 47% · n=14
- Settled
- 5/14 (36%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…nuclear nations. And tonight in more breaking news, my administration is using Defense Production Act to release $150 million to increase American refining capacity to…
…to attack. And by taking on these cyber criminals on offense and defense, we watch out for our warriors, we watch out for American citizens,…
There are 18 of them being built by the greatest defense companies in the world right now 18 under construction. Some of them very quickly…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Defense |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Defense | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Defense”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Defense” at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (36%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Defense” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Defense’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/defense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=defense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP