Will Donald Trump say “Lumber”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lumber” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (20%), most recently on Apr 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Lumber
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Lumber”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lumber” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (20%), most recently on Apr 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Lumber” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Lumber’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/lumber (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=lumber · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP