Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 17, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during Slovak Prime Minister event on Saturday?
Markets
18 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | No | 64%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 62%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 54%n=150 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 52%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 49%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 7+ times | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 49%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 48%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| EU / European Union | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 43%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel / Prize | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Press | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Killing / Execution | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Leader / Leadership | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Orbán / Hungary | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | No | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Machado | No | 38%n=26 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-slovak-prime-minister-event-on-saturday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP