Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 29, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Netanyahu events on September 29?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell | Yes | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Qatar | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Erdogan / Turkey | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| UN / United Nations | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bibi | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Young people | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake news | No | 44%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Sick person | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hezbollah | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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