Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 22, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement on January 22?
Markets
20 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eight Wars / Eight Peace Deals | Yes | 59%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 48%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Israel / Gaza 7+ times | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 41%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Kushner | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Historic | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Putin / Zelenskyy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obliteration / Obliterated | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Cambodia | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Killing / Execution | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 64%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi | No | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | No | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Qatar | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 44%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Accord | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Second Phase / Phase Two | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Palestine | No | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-board-of-peace-charter-announcement-on-january-22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP