Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jan 4, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say this week (December 29 - January 4)?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Dec 29, 2025 to Jan 4, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ass / Shit | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Eighth war / Eight wars | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Happy New Year | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bibi | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Party | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah / Lebanon | Yes | – | 0 | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Too Late | Yes | – | 0 | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | – | 0 | 70%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | No | – | 0 | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | – | 0 | 62%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | – | 0 | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Board of Peace | No | – | 0 | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 2026 | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock market | No | – | 0 | 49%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-december-29-january-4 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP