Donald Trump: Keynote, May 24, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at West Point Commencement Speech?
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afghanistan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America / American 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lethal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Warrior | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dome | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God 3+ times | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Houthis | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Enemy 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-47 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| River | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space Force | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 39%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / Wokeness | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 18%n=92 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-west-point-commencement-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP