Donald Trump: Episode, Dec 28, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Zelensky event on Sunday?
Markets
21 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful | Yes | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 42%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Eighth war / Eight wars | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Two weeks | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin 3+ times | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mar-a-Lago | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Referendum | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 10+ times | Yes | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 54%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | 39%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| NATO 3+ times | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Boat | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Card | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden's war | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kiev | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk | No | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Suit | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Donbas / Crimea | No | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-zelensky-event-on-sunday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP