Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 16, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Hanukkah Reception on December 16?
Markets
20 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hell | Yes | 50%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Thank / Please 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden / Obama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bibi | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ivanka / Jared | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Anti-Semitic / Anti-Semitism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Nuclear 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew / Jewish 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Jerusalem | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Howard / Witkoff | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi / Holocaust | Yes | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Board of Peace | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Merry Christmas | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hero / Patriot | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Crypto | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dark Cloud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bible / Pastor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-hanukkah-reception-on-december-16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP