Donald Trump: Rally, Jan 19, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during victory rally?
Markets
16 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border 10+ times | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | Yes | 5%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 70%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 67%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 66%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | 65%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| God 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Greenland | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crooked Joe | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Doge/Dogecoin | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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