Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 29, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Allentown, PA rally?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | Yes | 76%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 74%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News 3+ times | Yes | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 68%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | Yes | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Frack/Fracking 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Puerto Rico/Rican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rocket | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dark Maga | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | Yes | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tony | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rogan | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 31%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 4%n=37 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-oct-29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP