Donald Trump: Rally, Nov 2, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?
Markets
21 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Women's Sports | Yes | 79%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 79%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 75%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 75%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | Yes | 70%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream 3+ times | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hung Cao | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| John McGuire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weave | Yes | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Frack/Fracking 4+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Capone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peanut/Squirrel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 40%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 25%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 3%n=42 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-virginia-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP