Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 31, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?
Markets
22 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | Yes | 78%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 77%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 72%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 69%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | Yes | 68%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | Yes | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Teleprompter 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Springfield | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| American dream 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Halloween | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nevada 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Snake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Witch | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Melania | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy/Crooked Joe 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 27%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 26%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 4%n=39 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally-oct-31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP