Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 30, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Green Bay, WI rally?
Markets
24 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | Yes | 76%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 74%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 70%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | Yes | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Front Row Joe | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Garbage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 4+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream 3+ times | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Enemy From Within | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Packers | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wisconsin 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wrestling | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weave | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 29%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 27%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Rogan | No | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 4%n=38 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally-oct-30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP