Donald Trump: Rally, Nov 3, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Kinston, NC rally?
Markets
19 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocahontas | Yes | 79%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 79%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 72%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Garbage | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Vote 25+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 8+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sex change | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 25+ times | No | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| North Carolina 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cognitively Impaired | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| RFK | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mark Robinson | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Peanut/Squirrel | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 23%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 21%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 3%n=44 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-kinston-nc-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP