Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 16, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during all female town hall?
Markets
17 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 34%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| JD Vance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Abortion 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Black women | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Execution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Laken Riley | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Melania | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ninth month | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Parental Rights | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roe/Wade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Women love me | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Women's sports | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | No | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Roe v. Wade | open | – | 53¢ Polymarket |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-all-female-town-hall · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP