Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 22, 2025
Kalshi What Will Trump Say During The Announcement on September 22nd?
Markets
25 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 84%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| FDA / Food and Drug Administration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lobby / Lobbyist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NIH / National Institutes of Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pregnant / Pregnancy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tylenol | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Warp Speed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 73%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 41%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Prescription | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Covid | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Diet / Nutrition | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fitness / Exercise | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Over the Counter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Painkiller | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CDC / Centers for Disease Control | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pharmaceutical | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP